After gaining independence for 59 years, Indonesia in 2004 made history by holding its first ever direct presidential election, which saw Soesilo Bambang Yudhonono become the country’s first directly elected president.

The election was participated by five presidential and vice-presidential hopeful pairs, each with their own rather vague platforms – typical in Indonesian politics that knows no clear-cut differences between right wing politics and left-wing politics.

This is in stark contrast with the US’ politics, for example, in which voters can choose their preferred candidate based on ideological platforms. From a Republican candidate, for example, you could expect he/she will advocate for anti-abortion politics, gun ownership, etc, while from a Democratic candidate you would expect he/she will campaign for medical freedom in relation to abortion, open borders, diversity, LGBTQ pro policies, etc.

Fast forward to 2009, the country held its second direct presidential election, participated by three pairs. Again, it was the same old election style only with fewer candidates this time. Yudhoyono was re-elected as president, beating Megawati Soekarnoputri, daughter of Indonesia’s first president and chairwoman of Indonesia’s current ruling party Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP).

And the 2014 and 2019 presidential elections happened, said to become two of the most bitter elections in the country and the ones that left the nation “polarized”. The two elections also saw a fierce battle between former general Prabowo Subianto and former mayor and businessmen Joko Widodo, with Widodo winning both the elections back-to-back.

To some extent, Indonesia’s 2014 and 2019 presidential elections shared similarities with the 2016 and 2020 US presidential elections, which also left the US deeply divided.

However, Indonesia’s 2014 and 2019 elections were atypical of the previous elections in Indonesia. As voters only had two choices of candidates, the differences were quite clear by Indonesia’s standard. Widodo was viewed as a candidate with a “nationalistic, secular” platform, while Subianto, backed by many Islamic groups, was seen as a right-leaning candidate although the two candidates still advocated for the Pancasila ideology. Some analyst even called the election as a “battle between conservatism versus moderation”.

Shortly after winning the 2014 election, Widodo even called for “unity” in the already-divided nation, similar to the “call for unity” from Joe Biden after he won the bitter US election in 2020.

The 2014 election even had a spill-over effect to the 2017 Jakarta capital election that saw conservative politician Anies Baswedan and former Widodo’s minister who was backed by Islamist groups and a Chinese-Indonesian former mayor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama. In a shock to the nation, Baswedan convincingly won the hotly contested election after a long bitter campaign marred with mudslinging, bitter rivalry between supporters of the two candidates, and identity politics.

Suffice to say that the period between and after the 2014 presidential election until the 2019 election were some of the most bitter periods in Indonesia’s politics, dividing the third largest democracy like never before.

After Widodo won the 2019 election, he promptly made a shocking move by appointing Subianto as his Defense Minister and Sandiaga Uno – former Prabowo’s running mate – as his Tourism Minister. The rivalry and division between the two camps afterwards seemed to subside as the former opponents were now on the same team.

The upcoming 2024 presidential election will perhaps be rather different from the last two elections but similar to the 2009 election as there will be three candidates to chooses from: former general and current Widodo’s Minister Subianto who’s trying his third time lucky, current Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo, and Baswedan.

Next year’s presidential election might also not be as bitter as the two previous elections but will be probably as vague as the elections before 2004 in terms of platforms offered by the candidates. If anything, the 2024 elections will restore the “Indonesian style of politics” with its vagueness in political platforms.

In 2024 election, it would also be rather hard to set one candidate one apart from others because they have almost similar platforms, perhaps with the exception of Baswedan that is backed by conservative Muslim groups although again, typical of Indonesian politics, no candidate or political party openly advocates for left-wing, left-leaning, or right-wing, or right-leaning policies.

In a way, the 2024 presidential election will arguably be a battle between Jokowi’s camp – embodied by Pranowo and Subianto – and Baswedan’s camp.

Subianto’ party has previously claimed that if elected, Prabowo would continue Widodo’ s policies, while according to a survey it is believed that Pranowo is the one that will continue Widodo’s policies.  

Next year’s election will probably not bring as much as excitement (and bitterness) as the two previous elections did, especially after recent polls show that both Subianto and Pranowo are way ahead Baswedan.

Unless Baswedan’s team can step up the game and narrow down the gap, it would be just another boring typical Indonesian presidential election and probably be a toss-up between Subianto and Pranowo.